Will the War End Soon? Will U.S. Troops Leave? What Will Israel Do? Will Oil and Gold Prices Fall?

President Trump recently stated that the war might end in a short time. Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel also said that Iran no longer poses an existential threat. It seems that there are signs the war is ending.

However, please remember that information in war can be a "smoke screen" used to trick the enemy. We must look at what the person who started the war wanted. Did they reach their goals?

The goal for the U.S. and Israel, at first look, is to remove Iran's nuclear threat. But deep down, it is about protecting the status of the Petrodollar. This is the base of America's global financial plan. Without the Petrodollar, global money would flow into gold and other assets. The value of the dollar would fall, which would hurt the U.S. economy.

The U.S. and Israel claim they have destroyed many of Iran's nuclear sites, military bases, and factories. What we do not know is how many facilities and missiles are still hidden deep under the mountains. We also do not know if the Iranian government is truly unable to function.

What we can see is that Iran still launches missile and drone attacks every day. The U.S. and Israel cannot stop all of them. These attacks always have some effect. More importantly, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz. This is the main path for oil. 20 million barrels of oil are blocked there every day, which is 20% of the world's needs.

If the U.S. leaves now, would it be admitting that Iran controls the strait? Without the ability to protect oil shipping, can the Petrodollar still exist? Probably not. Not only would U.S. banks disagree, but oil-producing countries would also be unhappy. They would not want to pay "protection fees" to an old enemy like Iran.

Now, let's imagine the U.S. really does leave soon. What would happen? If Israel thinks the U.S. is leaving, they will surely attack Iran even harder before the Americans go. They would try to destroy as many weapons and factories as possible. But this would make Iran fight back even more—not just against Israel, but against other Gulf countries too. It could attack everything from oil to water plants. Iran's mindset is: "If you break me, I will break the whole region."

If the U.S. leaves suddenly, oil prices might drop at first. But they will soon rise again because the strait is still blocked and Iran is fighting back. Central banks will also buy more gold, so gold prices will likely keep going up.

Perhaps the best plan is to reach an agreement before leaving. We cannot guess all the terms, but ending the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a must. This would be the plan with the smallest loss for everyone.

"In me, the tiger sniffs the rose."